“For a few hours on Tuesday, Polymarket hosted a bet about the possibility of nuclear war in 2026. The market asked the question “Nuclear weapon detonation by …?” and racked up close to a million dollars in trading volume before Polymarket took the unusual step to remove the market from its website”
““How ghoulish. Especially given how much insider trading apparently goes on with current events bets,” Alex Wellerstein, a nuclear historian and creator of the NUKEMAP, told 404 Media.
Wellerstein said that betting on nuclear war isn’t unprecedented, but that it’s usually tongue-in-cheek and conducted by insiders. “The thing that immediately comes to mind is Fermi’s ‘side bet’ that the Trinity test would destroy the atmosphere in 1945—which was a joke, as nobody would be able to collect if it had happened,” he said”
“Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has repeatedly called the site “the future of news,” and has suggested that prediction markets give the public a more clear picture of events because money is on the line. The reality is that the financial incentives pervert reality”