“Prediction markets have exploded into mainstream American life. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi now allow users to bet on virtually any outcome of a future event”
“Major media outlets like Dow Jones (including The Wall Street Journal), CNN and CNBC have announced partnerships, integrating prediction market odds into coverage. The news is now read alongside people betting on the news”
“The uncomfortable truth is that prediction machines have become infrastructure for the legitimacy of event outcomes, no matter how outlandish”
“When markets process political events before democratic institutions like Congress can deliberate, market outcomes are treated as validation and permission for political actions”
“Markets have optimized for speed. Democracy has been designed for deliberation”
“Prediction markets create a different version of this reflexive loop that operates through narrative by pricing the events themselves and shaping perceptions of legitimacy”
“prediction markets are regulated differently than traditional markets, by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission rather than state gambling agencies, and their business model depends on being what they call “event contract” platforms — a semantic designation meant to make them distinct from gambling apps”